Hi all, I just want to touch on one thing that may be missed in the detail in the Russo-Ukraine war. Autocracies can keep things going due to a lack of accountability, let us remember Syria though. Assad was in charge, then he was not. I really think it is just a question of when Ukraine wins, not if.
For those of you who like the detail, I refer to the three graphs below. - Area taken since 5th January 2024 (%) - Forecast Equipment losses to occupy 50% of Ukraine (total, not additional 50%) - Forecast Personnel losses to occupy 50% of Ukraine (Orange line) From the first graph we can see that progress is very slow, almost flat at times. Form the other two graphs we can see a trend of increased resources to meet the same objective. Imagine you are in charge of a project to build an office block and you had increased your personnel estimate by 200% and your equipment estimate by over 50%, how would it look to the people funding the project?
